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2022 industry and market analysis forecasting skewed as COVID causes havoc

  • December forecasts suggested the Australian economy will recover quickly from the lockdown headwinds of 2021.
  • Yet a wave of COVID-19 cases sweeping through the country has turned outlooks for 2022 on its head.
  • Health officials are encouraging people to get their booster dose of an approved vaccine.

Australia’s surge of COVID-19 cases has thrown previous positive 2022 industry and market analysis forecasts into disarray, as data suggests Aussies have stopped spending – much like when nation-wide lockdowns were in place.

In December, Morgan Stanley Australia research, like many other firms forecasting Australia’s economic outlook for 2022, suggested that the Australian economy will recover quickly from the lockdown headwinds of 2021.

At the time, the country was enjoying easing restrictions met with strong demand from both consumers and corporates. Morgan Stanley Australia upgraded its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.9% on the back of the touted reopening, with 2023 growth also expected to stay above trend at 3.3%.

However, in the month since, things have changed drastically, rendering previous forecasting and industry market analysis as relevant as this year’s Golden Globe Awards.

According to today’s Federal Government health records, Australia has had 72,239 new cases of COVID-19 acquired in just the past 24 hours and more than 495,000 active cases in total. In Victoria alone, in the past seven days the state has had 11,227 locally acquired cases.

As such, health officials are encouraging people to get their booster dose of a vaccine, whether it be from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, or Moderna.

ANZ data has shown that in COVID-ravaged Victoria and New South Wales in particular are at levels near typical of lockdown conditions with spending, or lack thereof.

The hospitality sector has been taking the biggest financial hit, while clothing retailers are also copping the brunt of the situation.

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